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Thoughts & Comments
Banks Hoarding Capital? Oh No, They're Not
Complaints from Congress aside, bank lending rose meaningfully in 2008

Gary Townsend
Posted 01/13/2009
Hill-Townsend Capital
gary.twnsnd@gmail.com

Are U.S. commercial banks shirking their social responsibilities, happily agreeing to the Treasury’s capital investments but unwilling to lend?  Here in Washington, the new 111th Congress seems to have adopted this view as an article of faith. On Friday, House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank introduced legislation that would retroactively modify several provisions of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), adding cavalierly, “If they don’t like it, they can give the money back.”

Contract law and political posturing aside, since the recession began in December 2007, commercial bank lending rose 5.7%, impressive given the sharp economic contraction.  Moreover, lending increased in all categories but home equity lending. And compared to the prior year? Commercial and industrial loans grew at about half the 11% rate in 2007, but total real estate lending grew just 0.6% less, and consumer loans grew at the same 8.9% rate, according the Federal Reserve. 



(Click here for full-size version of table.)

Also, the Fed’s recent Consumer Credit Report (January 8, 2009) suggests that commercial banks are taking market share from finance companies, savings institutions, and especially securitized asset pools, which continue to contract materially. Until confidence is restored, closed securitization markets will inhibit improved residential mortgage and consumer credit availability.

Congress appears already to have concluded that it is easier (and as a public spectacle much more fun!)  to beat bank executives with a plank than to address the underlying economic problems. Tragically, its actions seemed destined to diminish confidence rather than rebuild it.   

What do you think? Let me know!


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jamesa40 Posted On 1/13/2009 12:49:53 PM

Congress always does a great job in propagating doom and gloom and diminishing confidence. The have a knack for turning things into self-fulfilling prophecies. That allows them to go in and mis-manage the heck out of it and try to remove the very capital that is needed to keep the system afloat. Best be stocking up the cupboard for this one.

JimmyJohnson Posted On 1/13/2009 12:51:44 PM

Huh? The government gives Wall Street fat cat speculators $350 billion and you defend them??? I don’t get it!

anonymous Posted On 1/13/2009 12:56:48 PM

Good to have you back, GT! Keep 'em comin'! Cheers!

Tom Posted On 1/13/2009 6:51:30 PM

I don't disagree with the overall point Gary is making with regard to political posturing vs. reality, but I wouldn't necessarily draw the same conclusion from these numbers. They all represent outstanding balances, rather than new extensions of credit. Clearly some actual "new" credit is being granted, but it is likely a portion of the year-over-year increase in outstanding is due to retention on BS of new loans (by necessity, not choice) that previously would have been easily securitized, plus increased drawdowns from lines of credit (C&I and HEQ) that were granted in previous years.

bill_az Posted On 1/14/2009 1:32:54 AM

That Congress wants their money back is very encouraging to me. They are now investors...they want to know what their potential return might be at any given point. Never mind that WFC and JPM are begging to give back their capital infusions at the earliest date. Coack K and Jamie D know they stand a high chance of being the "world's greatest bankers" once the recession is done.

tgage Posted On 1/14/2009 9:48:48 AM

What's unfortunate is that Congress, the media, and the under-informed public tar all banks with the same brush. The capital infusion program is not a Wall Street bailout. If you look at the banks that have received TARP funding, it's mostly a Main Street infusion. Except, of course, that such a big chunk of the funding went to prop up the auto industry and a few "to big to fail" financials with horribly flawed business models. But now Washington is confused and conflicted about the program, which has actually made the program more of a hinderance than a benefit. Banks are being told by the Treasury to use capital to stimulate lending, then they're told to boost their capital adequacy, which means sitting on the money. Jeez, are they encouraging or discouraging lending? This has turned into a complete mess, and a lot of well-run, customer-focused institutions are caught in the prop wash. Yet again, Washington figures out a way to screw up a basically good idea.

srchester Posted On 1/14/2009 12:01:15 PM

An increase in outstanding loans does not necessarily mean banks are making new loans. It more likely is the result of customers drawing down available credit and banks holding more loans than in the past. As a reformed commercial banker I keep up with many of my former colleagues who are not even considering new loans today.

skemp8 Posted On 1/14/2009 5:24:42 PM

I'm not even a 'reformed" commercial banker...I'm still a commercial banker. And srchester is absolutely correct. The banks that are doing any commercial lending are doing so more conservatively than ever, because they know that client's options are limited (i.e., there is no competition for these transactions). The increases mentioned above are draw downs on existing facilities by companies who are hurting...

mario837 Posted On 1/15/2009 6:50:05 AM

It seems to me that the very reason of the increase is resting aside both the article and the comments. With bad or troubled clients, the "usual" way is for a bank to refinance the maturity plus the accrued interest. So, if this happened in a good percentage of the portfolio, as I think, there is little room for new draw-downs.
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